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Horses that have been well backed or are drifting in the market

View the most backed horses and the biggest drifters in today’s horse racing

Today’s Market Movers - The Racing App

Market movers in horse racing refer to horses in a race whose odds in the betting market have changed significantly from their opening price. Horses whose odds are significantly shortening are being ‘well backed’ by punters. Less favoured horses whose odds are lengthening are said to be ‘on the drift’.

Received wisdom suggests that if a horse’s price shortens it is more likely to win i.e. its win probability increases. It follows that well backed horses are less likely to run disappointingly and therefore that a comparison between their pre-race Computeform rating and the Computeform rating they actually return in a race should be more favourable.
Our research suggests that this is indeed the case and that it is an appropriate way to quantify the importance of a market move. Essentially, we can predict that if a horse’s price shortens by a certain percentage in the market, its average performance will increase by a certain number of pounds.
However, while there is a clear and strong relationship between price change and change in average under/overperformance compared with expectations, there are also clear differences between races containing largely exposed horses and those that are unknown quantities. The most significant contrast being between jumps conditions races where the horses tend to be very exposed and 2yo maidens where they are very unexposed. In the former price change tends to not be a particularly significant indicator of upcoming performance and in the latter it is a very significant indicator.
<a href="https://www.theracingapp.co.uk/news/When-a-market-move-matters-and-when-it-doesnt/cG9zdDoxMzI5/Punting,Racing-Data-Science">Read the full article here</a>
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